ChipStack Physical AI Research
The 100M Humanoid Meter tracks whether humanoid robotics is moving from stage demos into the physical supply chain: production capacity, filings, factory tooling, actuator stacks, magnets, reducers, sensors, and supplier confirmation.
Current H100
52/100
Stage
Factory Breadcrumbs
Run-rate band
10,000–20,000/yr
Physical AI Watch · 2026-06-23
A scoreboard for whether humanoid robotics is moving from demos into physical supply chains: production capacity, filings, supplier confirmation, factory tooling, magnets, reducers, and QA systems.
H100 Index
52/100
Stage
Factory Breadcrumbs
Range 45–60
Credible annual run-rate band
10,000–20,000 / yr
Linear progress to 100M: 0.01%–0.02%. Aspirational capacity is excluded until supported by line-readiness, tooling, site, or output evidence.
What moved the meter
HKEX annual-results filing says UBTECH sold 1,079 full-size embodied intelligent humanoid robots in 2025, grew humanoid revenue to RMB 820.6M, and achieved annualized production capacity of over 6,000 full-size humanoids by year-end 2025; strengthens evidence that Walker S-series has moved beyond pilots into small-scale mass production/commercial delivery. No component supplier names disclosed.
Tesla's Fremont Factory page describes Fremont as a hub for Model 3, Model Y and Tesla Optimus production, strengthening official evidence that Fremont is an Optimus production/manufacturing site. No capacity, line count, supplier name, or order volume disclosed.
Reuters-syndicated report says USA Rare Earth signed definitive agreements with U.S. Commerce for up to $1.6B of CHIPS Act funding, supporting Round Top, processing, metal-making, and U.S. magnet manufacturing; company also plans a $1.2B South Carolina rare-earth metals/magnet facility. Read-through to non-China NdFeB resilience for humanoid actuator supply chains, but initial Round Top production target is 2028.
Supplier credibility board
Confirmed official actuator relationship; no new weekly change unless fresh filing/source appears.
Confirmed manufacturing partnership; watch for production-site/capacity details.
No direct confirmation. Treat Tesla industrialization evidence as category support, not supplier validation.
No direct confirmation. Reducer demand is structurally relevant but supplier maps remain unproven.
No humanoid-specific customer/export-license proof in the current evidence set.
Filing can confirm volume/capacity without naming actuators, reducers, magnets, batteries, or EMS suppliers.
Bottleneck watch
Tesla/UBTECH/Figure evidence keeps the joint stack central; supplier confirmation remains the gating item.
Strategic bottleneck for permanent-magnet actuators; no humanoid-specific offtake unless explicitly disclosed.
Careers/site evidence increasingly points to the boring production systems needed before scale.
Jabil/Apptronik is confirmed; other EMS names remain watchlist-only without new customer evidence.
Watch next
Educational only. Simulated portfolio. Not financial advice.
Free signal · Alpha decisions
Free readers get the meter and the top signal. Alpha gets the full weekly supplier board, watchlist read-through, and evidence gates for what would actually change the investment view.
Educational only. Simulated portfolio. Not financial advice.